Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Big day, high expectations



The shoes are shined, the jerseys washed, the floors been waxed, and the beers are cold. It's time Dallas, Texas, to get your royal blue and wave it proudly. For the first time in five years, the Dallas Mavericks are back to the Western Conference Finals, with vengeance in their hearts and pride on their brows. Every one remembers that dreadful 06' season-ending finals heartbreak, but its almost in the rear view mirror now as the Mavs seek an NBA championship for the first time in franchise history. 


The Mavs have had plenty of time to rest (nine days to be exact) for the chance to take back what is rightfully theirs. Tip off begins at 8pm against the OKC Thunder, with the Durantula (Kevin Durant) and Westbrook wielding the helm of their net thrashing offense. Whether you are a MFFL or just a pretty face takin' up space, you can't argue with the fact of a potential series threat against the Thunder. Their bench may not be as deep as the Mavs, but its certainly one that will challenge and test the durability and teamwork we have seen all season long. Here are a few potential match ups argued amongst sports analysts:

Jason Kidd vs. Russell Westbrook 

Westbrook: 14.9 points on 32 percent shooting, 9.1 assists, 4.0 rebounds 

Kidd (+9.1): 6.5 points on 25 percent shooting (4-of-17 3-pointers), 9.5 assists, 6.9 rebounds. 

Analysis: This one will probably surprise people who didn’t watch the Mavs-Thunder games or have a foggy recollection of them. Westbrook’s quickness is a major weapon, but he still wasn’t effective against a man 16 years older than him. The Mavs’ big men deserve a large share of the credit for containing the All-Star. The majority of Westbrook’s shots against Kidd came in the paint, but he was only 10-of-26 on those attempts, including 8-of-18 at the rim. 

DeShawn Stevenson vs. Thabo Sefolosha 


Sefolosha: 5.1 points on 60 percent shooting (3-5 in 56 minutes), 4.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists 

Stevenson (+1.3): 13.5 points on 50 percent shooting (6-10 3s), 1.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists. 

Analysis: Neither of these defensive-minded role players are expected to put up big numbers, but Stevenson ranked among the NBA’s best 3-point shooters early in the season. He knocked down 6-of-10 3s when on the floor against Sefolosha. It’s a big bonus for the Mavs if Stevenson can shoot anywhere near that well in the West finals. 

Shawn Marion vs. Kevin Durant 

Marion (+3.6): 23.2 points on 65 percent shooting, 7.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists. 

Durant: 23.7 points on 53 percent shooting, 4.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists. 

Analysis: The Mavs’ biggest mismatch problem in this series was surprisingly even. However, a lot of Marion’s minutes came at power forward, especially in the win when Dirk Nowitzki sprained his knee during the first half. The Mavs will need to make Durant work on defense, which means they’ll need to get Marion involved as a cutter and slasher in their halfcourt sets. 

Dirk Nowitzki vs. Serge Ibaka 

Nowitzki (+4.9): 40.9 points on 70 percent shooting, 3.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists. 

Ibaka: 22.9 points on 67 percent shooting, 9.8 rebounds, no assists. 

Analysis: The 21-year-old Ibaka is one of the NBA’s best shot blockers, but the crafty Nowitzki uses that against him with an assortment of pump fakes Ibaka has to respect due to Dirk’s shooting ability. Nowitzki averaged 16.4 free throw attempts per 36 minutes against Ibaka, who will probably spend a lot of the series in foul trouble. 

Dirk Nowitzki vs. Nick Collison 

Nowitzki (+15.2): 32.2 points on 56 percent shooting, 5.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists 

Collison: 3.8 points on 100 percent shooting, 5.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists 

Analysis: Collison, a savvy veteran, played most of Game 7 against the Grizzlies and did a solid job defending Zach Randolph. Based on these numbers, however, Collision doesn’t appear to be the answer defending Dirk. 

Tyson Chandler vs. Kendrick Perkins 

Chandler (+9.0): 10.3 points on 57 percent shooting, 18.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists. 

Perkins: 11.6 points on 80 percent shooting, 14.1 rebounds, no assists. 

Analysis: These stats are from Perkins’ days with the Celtics. Neither big man should be judged solely on individual numbers. They have similar mindsets, but Perkins is much bulkier and Chandler much more athletic. Perkins has problems catching and finishing and isn’t a shooting threat, so Chandler won’t hesitate to help off him on defense. 

Jason Terry vs. James Harden 

Terry: 16.6 points on 43 percent shooting, 5.5 assists, 1.1 rebounds. 

Harden (+4.4): 13.3 points on 38 percent shooting, 5.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists. 

Analysis: The battle of the sixth men shooting guards is a tough matchup for Terry. The 6-foot-5, 220-pound Harden is a versatile player who will have a huge size advantage. Of course, if Terry hasn’t cooled off during the long layoff since his record-setting Game 4 shooting exhibition, size won’t matter. 

J.J. Barea vs. Eric Maynor 

Barea: 18.5 points on 50 percent shooting, 7.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists 

Maynor (+6.5): 12.0 points on 36 percent shooting, 9.8 assists, 3.3 rebounds 

Analysis: There aren’t many backup point guards who I’d take over Barea, but Maynor is one of them. He’s a mid-first round pick who fell in the Thunder’s laps because the Jazz wanted to avoid the luxury tax. Maynor is a pure point guard, while Barea is an explosive scorer who embarrassed the Lakers with his penetration off of pick-and-rolls. 

Brendan Haywood vs. Nazr Mohammed 

Haywood (+36.0): 9.0 points on 50 percent shooting, 15.0 rebounds, no assists 

Mohammed: 12.0 points on 50 percent shooting, no rebounds, 3.0 assists 

Analysis: These numbers are from a sample of only 12 minutes, but the Mavs should have a significant edge when the backup big men are on the floor. Mohammed has a championship ring from his time in San Antonio, but he’s no longer a starting-quality center. Haywood is, as he’s proven during the playoffs.
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If the Dallas Mavericks can stop Durant and contain Westbrook, then the chances to advance are certainly improved. There is simply too much experience on the Mavs for the Thunder to cover and with Dirk, Kidd, Terry, Peja, Stevenson, and sometimes Barea all knockin' down threes, OKC might just find themselves running for the border like the defending champs did. It wont be an easy series, but it will further improve and unitize the Mavs as a franchise and most importantly as a team. 

MAVS IN 5

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